• Succession: On March 8, Mojtaba Khamenei was confirmed as Iran’s new Supreme Leader.

• U.S. Transition: SECWAR Pete Hegseth confirms that the U.S. is no longer aiming for limited damage, but is instead shifting to “complete destruction.”

• The Hormuz Blockade: The Strait of Hormuz remains under strict guard by the IRGCN. Iranians have planted wat…

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This week we saw volatility in the markets due to both the conflict in Iran and employment data. The two catalysts are making the Fed’s job even more difficult. With WTI crude prices hitting $90/barrel it would be understandable to be concerned about inflation. However, on Friday important jobs data was released showing the United States a…

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What We’ll Cover:

• What Happened

• Why it Matters

• Digging Deeper into the Events

• Bottom Line

What Happened

Early Saturday, the U.S. and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury (codenamed "Roaring Lion" by Israel), a massive joint aerial campaign targeting over 20 Iranian provinces. President Trump has confirmed the death of 40 senior Iranian officials, including Sup…

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• The SCOTUS decision regarding tariffs

• GDP: Is it as bad as the headline number?

• Inflation and the Fed’s next move

• Summary

Supreme Court Decision

“And nine, nine rings were gifted to the race of Men, who above all else desire power. For within these rings was bound the strength and the will to govern each race. But they were all of them deceiv…

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• Jobs Data

• Growth Stocks and Liquidity Tightening

• The Bond Market’s Potential Confirmation

• Summary

Let’s pretend that the media headlines are the Ministry of Magic, doing everything they possibly can to keep order, despite a clear threat underneath the surface. Somewhere in a dark hallway of Fox News one can quietly here the word “Imperio” u…

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What We’ll Cover

• Overview of

• Fundamental Analysis

• Technical Analysis

• Historical Precedent and Why We’re Convicted

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF ($TLT)

This ETF is directly correlated to long-duration US Government bonds. Unlike purchasing a bond directly, where you can either hold and collect the coupon payments or sell, is a rolling fund. The ETF immediately sells bonds when they have durations of less than 20 years and repurchases bonds with a longer duration (i.e. 30 years). In other words, is a way to take advantage of bonds/dividends without buying direct from the US Govt. Here are some basics that you can expect when investing in $TLT.

• Dividend Payments: Current Yield of 3.82% (paid monthly)

• Move Mechanics: For every 1% move in long-dated treasuries, moves roughly 15% in the opposite direction.

• Capital Gains/Losses: Unlike “regular” bonds, the underlying stock price of moves much more. Ultimately, you can cash in on great capital gains during times of uncertainty, or you can experience huge capital losses during times of increasing inflation (2022-2023).

Think of the ETF as a way to determine where things are headed. It doesn't tell you what the economy is doing today; it tells you what the market thinks the next 20 years of growth and inflation will look like. Right now, is extremely coiled and signaling a big move soon. Just like with any bond, fear of recession makes prices rise, and fear of inflation makes prices drop.

Fundamental Analysis - The Bull Case

Since the inflationary spiral that began in late 2021, has been on a spiral of its own, albeit downward. When inflation started picking up, the Fed began signaling “higher for longer” for the first time since before the great financial crisis of 2008. With current unemployment concerns, inflation is no longer the primary concern of the Fed. Despite the Federal Funds rate entering a cutting cycle in July, 2024 has stayed mostly flat. Why? Bonds are waiting for a better signal. With inflation ticking down and unemployment ticking up, they may have received that signal. Let’s discuss.

Inflation: After peaking in June 2022 at a YoY level of 9.1%, inflation has fallen sharply to 2.7% in December 2025. In June of 2023 the sharp drop in inflation leveled out and began a slow decline, emphasizing the remaining “sticky” sectors. These sectors, that are tough to break, include shelter, medical care, and insurance.

• Shelter: makes up roughly 1/3 of overall CPI and is a lagging indicator. In short, you might notice that your neighbor who moved in next door is paying cheaper rent than the last tenant, but CPI won’t reflect that until millions of leases across the country come up for renewal. This procedural reality of renting results in anywhere from a 6-12 month delay in accurate shelter data.

• Medical Care: Being heavily reliant on human labor, these services stay sticky because once prices rise they are very unlikely to ever lower. In a time where the labor market is tightening, staples like healthcare cause employees of these sectors to see wage increases. This supply and demand is the double edged sword of free market capitalism. To put it into perspective, the average price of getting one’s tonsils removed (tonsillectomy) has skyrocketed over the last 20 years. As a fairly routine procedure, making it a good baseline, the price of a tonsillectomy has risen from an average of $2,800 in 2006, to $6,800 in 2026.

• Insurance: You may notice how, despite cooling inflation, some of your premiums are still rising. That’s because insurance itself is typically on a 1-2 year lag. For example, auto insurance is constantly adapting their policies based on the price of new/used vehicles, maintenance, car parts, metals, etc. In a time of spiraling inflation, those numbers will increase drastically, but on a lag. Your car insurance right now may be increasing because it is reacting to price increases from 2024.

We have also seen a slight reversal in consumer goods, likely due to tariffs implemented by the Trump administration. The average weighted tariff rate for 2026 is 10%-13.5%, essentially meaning that those consumer products are experiencing that level of inflation. Companies raise prices to combat tariff inflation. The name of the game for tariffs is short-term pain and long-term gain. Companies raise prices to meet profit margins, but are incentivized to bring manufacturing back to the United States (where the tariff is 0%) ultimately dropping prices in the future. That said, the average consumer is still hurting from the inflationary spiral of 2022-2023 and is hard-pressed to be relieved by a potential price drop five years from now. The Fed remains hawkish on tariffs, causing a new inflationary floor estimated around 2.3% YoY, instead of the Fed’s target of 2%. However, we’d like to shed some light on how President Trump enacts policy.

POTUS has a clear pattern, yet somehow few in the financial media space seem to recognize.

Step 1 - Outlandish claim made via press conference or social media post.

Step 2 - Everybody panics and the negative headlines pour in.

Step 3 - The issue in question begins to be negotiated.

Step 4 - The initial outlandish claim by President Trump doesn’t come to fruition, but markets see an overall win through the result of negotiations. This has happened time and time again. See examples below:

• The “Day One” 25% Tariff Threat (Canada and Mexico): Shortly after his victory in 2024, President Trump threatened a general 25% tariff on both Canada and Mexico unless they immediately stopped the flow of fentanyl into the US. Many critics warned of an immediate economic collapse, and wrote headlines about how the end is nigh. What happened? Negotiations were made, and 85% of consumer goods remained “tariff free” while fentanyl related deaths dropped over 20% in the first 12 months.

• The Invasion of Greenland: President Trump showed his interest in acquiring Greenland in order to control it and keep international security inline via the arctic. The media asked him if military action was off the table, to which he didn’t give a clear answer. Headlines surged of the USA invading Greenland, etc. and all the backlash against him followed. What happened? In January 2026, Denmark approved expanded U.S. defense arrangements and permanent strategic access to the island's mineral wealth and basing rights. While the U.S. didn't "buy" the land, it secured the security guarantees it wanted without the cost of full annexation.

• The Reciprocal Tariff on the World: President Trump threatened reciprocal tariffs of 20% for any country with a trade deficit against the US. More headlines surged of a return to the 1930s and 1940s, inflation, etc. What happened? By February 2026, the average effective tariff rate rose to 9.9%, but the U.S. successfully diverted trade away from China toward allied nations. The "outlandish" 20% threat resulted in a series of bilateral wins that increased net tax revenue by $132 billion in 2025 alone.

We are not taking political sides or telling you that President Trump is or isn’t a great POTUS. We are simply bringing a pattern to your attention. Based off his past behavior, we don’t believe that many of these tariffs will stick. The evidence we have suggests that the overwhelming majority of implemented tariffs are walked back and stabilized, resulting in wins for the markets.

Unemployment: The US unemployment rate hit a low of 3.4% in March 2023, and has been on a steady uptick ever since. Currently, the unemployment rate is 4.4%. HOWEVER, it must be noted that the unemployment rate for January was not released as scheduled due to the partial government shutdown. The report, originally scheduled for February 6, has been postponed to Wednesday, February 11. Aside from the unemployment rate, we are seeing more leading indicators of significant cracks in the labor market.

• JOLTS (Job Openings): The recent JOLTS report plummeted to 6.5 million, the lowest since 2017 (excluding the 2020 pandemic shock). The ratio of job openings to job seekers has officially dropped below 1.0, sitting at 0.87, meaning there are more people looking for jobs than there are jobs available.

• White Collar Cuts: We are seeing massive cuts from big tech firms. So far in 2026, Amazon has cut 16,000 jobs, Oracle has cut 30,000, and Meta has cut 10% of “Metaverse” staff.

This data is demonstrating that the people who typically spend the most money back into the economy are losing jobs faster than those who don’t. White collar jobs ($150k/year) are being cut. Job losses from this bracket will have downstream impacts on inflation, potentially cooling even stickier prices that we currently see.

We believe the fundamentals are set up for to move. With inflation cooling, albeit slowly, and unemployment showing strong warning signs, a flight to safe-haven assets may be imminent. If this trend continues, the Fed will have no choice but to shift from a “hawkish rate-cut” stance to an emergency rate-cut stance.

Technical Analysis - The Coiling and the Baseline

For reference, here is the weekly chart of as of market close on Friday.

The Coiling: Please note the continued tightening of the stock price. Volatility has slowed and the price has fluctuated between $84 and $94 since early 2025, yet has been tightening in a baroader sense for the last two years. In the bond market, this is known as “coiling”. In the past, such a tight range in has resulted in a 10%-15% move in one direction or the other. We believe that, given the current macro-economic environment, the impending move will be up.

Bullish Divergence: A technical indicator that occurs when the stock price trends lower, but the RSI (relative strength index) trends higher. This indicator suggests that selling pressure is decreasing, despite the stock price slightly decreasing. Here is a zoomed in version of to demonstrate:

A clear-cut case of bullish divergence. The coil is getting tighter and waiting for a breakout or breakdown.

Baseline Support: Perhaps one of the most compelling cases that we’ve seen a bottom in are the support lines highlighted in light blue below. Here is a zoomed out version of $TLT, showing its price movement since inception.

It’s trading near ALL-TIME LOWS. If this were a small-cap stock then there would be stronger reason to look into why, but given that this ETF tracks bonds it suggests that this is a multi-decade baseline. has recently bounced off of the all-time low and is currently bouncing off of strong support, seen at $84.15. The path of least resistance in our eyes is up, not down.

Historical Precedent - Has it Happened Before?

Yes, we’ve seen almost identical patterns in before, from both fundamental and technical standpoints. Here they are:

• 2018-2019 The Powell Pivot: During this time, The Fed was still hiking rates and the media began worrying about a potential crash. remained tight in a trading range of $113-$120. Finally, in 2019 it became clear that the hikes had done their jobs and cracked manufacturing. As a result, surged to $145 by the end of the year.

• 2013-2014 The Growth Scare: In July 2013, began trading in a tight range again, with growth concerns looming. In Q1 2014 GDP reports came in surprisingly negative, squeezing a popular trade of shorting bonds. As a result, went from $105 to $135.

• 2007-2008 The Financial Crisis: After six months of coiling, bonds were looking for a reason to rally. There were significant signs of cracks in the subprime housing market, yet bonds hadn’t moved. Finally, after it became clear that recession was imminent, rallied from $88 to $123 in a matter of months.

In technical analysis, there is a saying: “The longer the base, the higher the space.” $TLT has been consolidating in its current coil for two years. This suggests that the move will be strong and relatively fast. In 2018, the coil lasted 4 months and led to a 20% rally. In 2026, we have been coiling for nearly 24 months. If history is any guide, the snap out of this $87–$92 range won't be a crawl—it will be a gap-up that leaves the sticky inflation bears behind.

Our price average for in our portfolio is $86.95. It is our largest position, currently around 39% of our total portfolio value. We add during dips when possible and are slightly green overall. We are happy to watch remain flat during times of elevated volatility in broader equities, and the 4% dividend payments aren’t bad either. We plan to continue adding to this position until the moment arrives where we see strong price movement in either direction.

Thanks for reading! Until next time, good luck out there and Godspeed.

We send out newsletters like this weekly to our subscribers, and we also have a live portfolio that we update weekly and send out. For our newsletter you can subscribe to our Silver Membership, for our portfolio and weekly allocation updates subscribe to our Gold Membership. Link below!

Pioneer Financial, LLC - Products

Disclosures & Disclaimers: This newsletter is published by Pioneer Financial, LLC for informational and educational purposes only. The contents of this publication should not be construed as investment, legal, or tax advice, nor as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any specific security.

Pioneer Financial, LLC currently holds direct long positions in $TLT. This ownership represents a potential conflict of interest, as the company may benefit from an increase in the price of the securities discussed. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice and reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication.

Investing in the stock and bond markets involves significant risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial professional before making any investment decisions.

References

https://www.cdc.gov/overdose-prevention/data-research/facts-stats/index.html#:~:text=Provisional%20fatal%20drug%20overdose%20data,compared%20to%20the%20previous%20year.

https://cost.sidecarhealth.com/c/tonsillectomy-and-adenoidectomy-cost

https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2026/01/22/trump-announced-greenland-total-access-deal/

https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IN12643

https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/home.htm

https://www.hiringlab.org/2026/02/05/december-2025-jolts-report-balance-or-breaking-point/

• Liquidity Tightening

• The Market’s Reaction

• Bonds Telling a Different Story

• Historical Precedence and Where We Stand

This Isn’t Panic Selling, it’s Math

Over the last week the markets have started seeing significant selloffs in risk-assets. Big tech and crypto are down bad and X is flooded with people wondering what is going on. We want you to…

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• Big Tech Growth Stocks Change Business Model

• The Bond Market and What Its Telling Us

• Historical Precedent

Big Tech and the Pivot From Growth to Efficiency

After historic gains in 2023/2024, some major players in the tech space are beginning to change their business model, albeit slightly. After years of having a tunnel-visioned growth minds…

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• Brief History of Greenland

• Why it’s a Strategic Island For Security

• The Current Conflict

• Potential Market Impacts

One of the greatest sales tricks to have ever existed took place in the year 982 AD when the Norse vikings, lead by Erik the Red, settled in Greenland after being exiled from Iceland. After being found guilty of manslaughter, Erik the Red sailed west and landed on modern-day Greenland. He gave it the title “Greenland” in order to attract new settlers with hopes of building a colony, and it worked. The Norse established a colony that lasted nearly 500 years, before dying off, likely due to a small ice-age they were not able to survive. Yet, the days of Scandinavian nations settling on Greenland were not yet over.

After the original Norse colonies were unable to survive the harsh environments, the “Thule People” arrived on the island. Originating from coastal Alaska, then spreading eastward through Canada, the Thule arrived in Greenland sometime around 1200 AD. By this point, they had invented things like kayaks, harpoons, and dogsleds, which allowed them to travel farther and hunt better, giving them the tools to survive the harsh winters of the arctic. Roughly 90% of current Greenlanders are direct descendants of the Thule People. Though the Vikings gave the land its famous name, those who are descendants of the Thule People are the true ancestral heirs to the island, given no people before them were able to survive.

After 500 years of the Thule People inhabiting Greenland, and after the Norse settlers were fading out of memory, we come to the year 1721. Hans Egede, a Norwegian missionary, ventured to Greenland to find the “lost” vikings. He was convinced that they were still alive, and needed to be converted to Christianity. He landed in what is now called Nuuk, the capital of Greenland. When he arrived he found only the Thule, yet he stayed anyways in the hopes of still spreading Christianity. He established the first permanent Norwegian-Danish presence. Eventually, this resulted in Greenland officially becoming a Danish colony.

So Why Does Greenland Matter Strategically?

For centuries, Greenland was simply an island colony living in peace. That all changed with the onset of World War II. When the Nazis occupied Denmark in 1940, the US invoked the Monroe Doctrine in order to protect Greenland. There were two strategic reasons for the move.

1. Cryolite: A rare-earth mineral (of course). Cryolite is a mineral necessary for smelting aluminum, which was crucial to make aircraft. Greenland had the world’s only large deposit of the mineral. Interestingly enough, directly underneath that old mine, which was once filled with cryolite, is another hidden gem. High-Purity Quartz has been discovered underneath the old cryolite mine. HPQ is used to create EVs and AI chips. So, post-war Greenland once held a large deposit of things necessary to make aircraft. Now, in the digital age, Greenland holds a large deposit of things necessary to make electric vehicles and AI chips, LITERALLY UNDERNEATH THE ORIGINAL MINE. History doesn’t repeat, but it sure does rhyme.

2. Weather: Yes, weather. The weather patterns in Greenland were often a steadfast prediction of the weather patterns in Europe. Meaning whichever nation could hold control of Greenland would have better predictions of weather where the war was being fought. Eventually, these weather patterns would help the allied forces time the D-Day landings, culminating in the invasion of Germany and an end to the war.

In 2026, Greenland still holds strategic relevance, outside of its deposit of HPQ. Primarily, the benefits of Greenland come in the form of shipping lanes and EWSs (early warning systems).

1. The GIUK Gap: During the Cold War, the shortest distance for a nuclear missile strike from the Soviet Union would have been over the north pole. The waters between Greenland, Iceland, and the UK (GIUK) became a crucial chokepoint where NATO could monitor Soviet submarines entering the area.

2. Rare-Earth Minerals: As mentioned, Greenland holds a massive deposit of High-Purity Quartz. Specifically, it has a stockpile of Neodymium and Dysprosium which are vital for EVs, smartphones, and advanced weaponry. Currently, China dominates this market, and the US sees Greenland as the key to breaking that monopoly.

3. New Shipping Routes: As ice melts, new shipping lanes are becoming more viable. The northwest passage and the transpolar route are vital for commerce and supply trades. These routes could cut weeks off of shipping times from ships coming from Asia to Europe (China and Russia). Furthermore, it allows these ships to bypass the Suez Canal entirely, which not only cuts costs (up to $1,000,000 per ship), but also helps evade a 120-mile-long chokepoint where ships are moving slowly in a single-file line to get through.

The Current Conflict

Greenland is technically an autonomous territory. Greenlanders handle their own domestic issues and affairs, but Denmark is still in control of foreign affairs and defense planning. What we are seeing now is sort of a three-way argument going on between the US, who wants control of Greenland, the Greenlanders themselves, who want independence, and Denmark, who wants sovereign respect. The argument actually branches out even further, to Europe more broadly, as well as China and Russia. Let’s break down the key complaints from each plaintiff:

Of course there are other concerns such as disruption of the new world order post-WWII, and setting precedence that conquest, even through economic means, is back on the table of options for countries with disagreements. When it’s all said and done, we aren’t here to tell you what to think about this geopolitical conflict. Whether you think the move is justified by the US, or if Greenland deserves independence, or if you simply don’t care, doesn’t matter to us. What we do care about is how all of this drama might effect the markets. So let’s get into it.

Uncertain Times and Potential Outcomes

Something the stock market hates more than even global warfare is uncertainty. When geopolitical events and domestic policy becomes unpredictable to even the most sophisticated hedge fund analyst, panic ensues. So, let’s try to use three general potential outcomes and discuss how the markets may react.

Scenario 1. The US “Greenland Deal” Is Signed

At a rumored $700 Billion price tag, if the US acquired Greenland then the markets would likely take the current uncertainty and view it as a new asset with huge growth potential.

• Winners: Energy and metals. and , would likely see huge upside. With MP being a scaled rare earth producer and UUUU being one of the few mils in the US that can produce the ore.

• Losers: Precious metals. Gold and silver thrive on geopolitical uncertainty, which is why they’ve enjoyed a historic rally over the last few months. and would not lose their long-term value, but they would likely experience a sizable correction.

Scenario 2. This Whole Thing Blows Over

If the tariffs go away, and the US and European nations are able to come to a reasonable deal involving mutual mining rights, trades, etc, this would be bullish for big tech stocks.

• Winners: , , , and other big names would likely see a relief rally. These companies have been under pressure with fears of EU retaliation taking the front seat.

• Losers: Defense stocks such as could dip. With the fear of conflict subsiding, investors might shift to a growth mindset over a conflict/defensive one.

Scenario 3. Escalation

Though likely not a long-term solution, it could be detrimental in the short-term. With tariffs generally being viewed as inflationary, markets need to see growth to justify them. If more tariffs kick in (February 1) but no deal is met the markets will be afraid of stagflation (increased inflation + lower growth). Important Note: As we were finalizing this letter, news dropped that President Trump MAY NOT be continuing with the February 1 tariff deadline. That said, it is still valuable to know the potential impacts because the man may change his mind in 15 minutes.

• Winners: Precious metals, again. Gold and silver would again see a nice uncertainty premium paid for their safety. These plays are already seeing record highs, but an all out trade war with Europe would almost certainly push them even higher. would also likely see a bump due to the conflict playbook being advanced.

• Losers: and bonds/bond ETFs. We know what you might be thinking… “But aren’t bonds textbook safe havens in times like these?” Usually the answer is yes, but not necessarily this time. The reason bonds might suffer is because Europe holds roughly $1.5 TRILLION in US treasuries. They have already threatened weaponizing these holdings, and the fear of that outcome alone would be bad for bonds.

In Short

We’ve said time and time again that the only thing predictable about President Trump is his unpredictability. We mentioned in our newsletter last week that investors never know when he might flip a hemisphere on its head with no warning. Here’s our quote from last week’s letter.

We’re not here to tell you what we think of President Trump, whether you admire him or strongly dislike him is for each to decide on their own. However, what we can all agree on is that the man is volatile. Part of his process for initiating policy is to be unpredictable. Because of this, we have no clue what idea or proposal he will come up with each week.

As if on cue, this whole ordeal began unfolding over the weekend. All of this drama can continue to unravel quickly or be resolved via a Truth Social post at 4:00am, we don’t know. The key, right now more than anything, is to be diversified and flexible. We generally stick to our core positions and we have a defensive plan for the markets broadly. That said, we are ready and willing to trim, add, or otherwise adjust positions as necessary. Tensions are high and the markets are volatile, investors must be ready to adapt to take advantage of potential profitable trades.

Want to see exactly what our current positions are and which ones we adjust if things change? For that, you’ll need to subscribe to our Gold membership. Don’t worry, the first 90 days are FREE! And you can even cancel after that if you aren’t satisfied.

Pioneer Financial, LLC Gold Members Subscription

Thanks for reading! Until next time, good luck out there and Godspeed.

© 2025 Pioneer Financial, LLC — All rights reserved. This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

• President Trump’s 10% Credit Card Interest Cap

• Geopolitical Tensions With Iranian Protests

• Inflation - Is it under control?

The 10% Proposed Cap For Credit Cards

On Friday, January 9, President Trump proposed a 10% limit on the interest payments that banks are allowed to charge on their credit cards. This isn’t just a hit to potential bankin…

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• The Labor Market Continues to Weaken

• President Trump and the “Dream Military”

• Alphabet Versus Apple

• SpaceX and the Space Race of 2026

The Labor Market

Crucial employment data was released this week bringing about conflicting points of view on the overall labor market. Initial Jobless Claims were released on Thursday and showed slightly better…

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- Sequence of Events

- Venezuelan Resources and History

- What This Means for us.

How We Got Here: The 275 Day Collision Course

April 2025: Liberation Day. The Trump administration enacts 10% universal tariffs on any imported goods, causing rifts with a plethora of countries, including Venezuela.

August 2025: US Naval forces increase positioning in the Caribbean and continue striking alleged international drug-smuggling boats.

October 2025: The One Big Beautiful Bill Act goes into effect. Part of this bill empowers the US Treasury with “snap-back” authority, which enables the US to freeze assets of any country attempting to nationalize US corporate infrastructure. Venezuela was attempting to nationalize US infrastructure owned by Chevron.

December 10, 2025: The first seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker takes place by US military forces.

December 17, 2025: Official blockade of Venezuela begins by the US. This “quarantine” prevents any sanctioned oil tankers from leaving or entering Venezuelan waters.

December 20, 2025: A second oil tanker is seized by US military forces.

January 2, 2026: The US demands that Maduro step-down from power (again). Maduro refuses and responds by declaring a state of emergency.

January 3, 2026: US conducts coordinated strikes resulting in the capture of both President Maduro and his wife. He is being charged on US soil under narco-terrorism charges that began in 2020.

The Venezuelan Treasure Chest

Oil – Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserve in the entire world, even surpassing Saudi Arabia. Venezuela currently sits on roughly 300 billion barrels of oil, yes… that’s billion with a B. The country used to be a powerhouse of energy, being one of the main contributors to the energy boom post WWII. However, over the last 25 years or so, Venezuela has been producing less and less oil. Here’s a chart that depicts oil production from 1985-2026.

This graph illustrates the dramatic arc of Venezuela’s oil industry over the last four decades. You can see the country’s rise to a global energy titan in the late 1990s, followed by the “death spiral” that has led to the current geopolitical crisis.

Key Turning Points in the Graph:

• The 1990s Peak: During this era, Venezuela was producing over 3.1 million barrels per day (bpd). This was the “Golden Age” where they were a top-tier global supplier and a cornerstone of the Western energy market. Quite literally the engine of the western hemisphere.

• 2003 – 2007 (The Management Shift): The first major downtrend occurs after the 2003 oil strike and the subsequent firing of thousands of technical experts at PDVSA. This was followed by the 2007 nationalization of assets belonging to Exxon and ConocoPhillips. Venezuela replaced knowledgeable and experienced oil tycoon with political loyalists, it was all downhill from here.

• 2016 – 2020 (The Freefall): This period shows a total systemic collapse. A combination of hyperinflation, a lack of investment in infrastructure (rusting pipes and broken rigs), and the first wave of heavy U.S. sanctions caused production to fall below 1 million bpd for the first time in generations.

• 2025 – 2026 (The Current Crisis): The final leg down on the far right represents the impact of the December 2025 tanker seizures and the January 2026 blockade, which brought production to its lowest point in the modern era just before the capture of Maduro.

In essence, we haven’t truly tapped into the potential with Venezuelan oil because over the last decade they were only producing around 30% of what was possible. As a final note on oil, the overwhelming majority of Venezuelan production is known as “heavy crude” which is much more difficult to produce. Due to its viscosity, it can’t simply flow through pipes, it needs to be diluted with various chemicals to further liquidate it. Would you like to take a guess on who provided these chemicals to Venezuela? That’s right, the US. When we stopped providing the chemicals Venezuelan oil production stopped dead in the pipes. Don’t be fooled by the ‘discount’ on heavy crude. While it sells for less than WTI on paper, Venezuela’s heavy oil is the perfect fuel for the multi-billion-dollar refinery complex on the U.S. Gulf Coast. For companies like Chevron and Valero, the return of Venezuelan heavy crude doesn’t just mean more oil—it means wider profit margins as they switch back to a cheaper feedstock that their plants were born to run.

Gold – With most of the headlines being about oil, we’d like to mention that the gold and iron ore reserves of Venezuela are almost equally as staggering. Venezuela has the fifth largest gold reserve in the world, with some estimates suggesting up to 10,000 tons of gold in the ground. If we take today’s price of gold at roughly $4,500/oz then they are sitting on $1.45 trillion of gold, and I mean sitting on it literally. Because countries like the US and UK rejected Maduro as the legitimate president, we refused to allow them to purchase with their gold. This meant that Maduro was forced to use what he could on black markets, with buyers demanding a hefty discount. Now, those restraints are no longer in place.

We’ve officially reached the final chapters of the Venezuelan ‘Hobbit’ saga. The dragon has been chased out of the mountain, the ‘Battle of the Five Armies’ (or at least the five branches of the U.S. military) is underway, and everyone is suddenly arguing over who gets which piece of the treasure. Investors are acting like the Elves of Mirkwood—showing up to the ruins with a polite smile and a very long list of ‘historical claims’ they’d like settled in gold.

Iron – The last piece of the pie we’d like to discuss, iron ore. Venezuela ranks number four on the global stage for iron. Similar to gold, their own mistakes left them unable to tap into a huge resource. Venezuelan iron is 65% pure according to some estimates, making it Breaking Bad-pure relatively speaking, and much easier to convert to steel. The largest mill in the Caribbean that produced it was the SIDOR Steel Mill. In 2008, Hugo Chavez nationalized this mill and, predictably, appointed political loyalists to run it rather than experienced personnel. Through a mixture of power grid failures and communism, the once-renowned SIDOR mill saw its workers cannibalizing machines to sell as scrap metal to buy food. Yes, this really happened. See the link below if you don’t believe us.

https://apnews.com/general-news-international-news-35cf26a3436a4dac96ea891b08fddcfd

Once again we have a gigantic untapped resource ready to be utilized for the betterment of both the US and Venezuela. At today’s prices for iron, Venezuela’s massive 14.7-billion-ton supply values around $1.5 trillion. If your keeping score, that’s two potentially trillion-dollar revenue streams that is now at the disposal of people with IQs above room temperature and are not radical communist dictators subjecting their citizens to poverty and a forced consumption of zoo animals. Yes, this happened also, here’s the link if you don’t believe us (again).

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/17/thieves-stealing-venezuela-zoo-animals-to-eat-them-say-police

The Era of Reconstruction: How this Impacts US Markets and Which Tickers to Look For

While everyone looks at the big oil majors, we believe the real winners in the first 18 months will be the companies that provide the equipment. Venezuela’s rigs have “rotted” for decades.

· The Big Three: (Schlumberger), Halliburton , and Baker Hughes .

· The Thesis: These companies have the highest “fundamental ratings” right now because they get paid to fix the pipes and drill the wells before a single drop of new oil is even sold.

· and : Two major industrial ETFs to keep an eye out for. XLI is the more broadened and safer play, yet PAVE offers a specific investment of companies that provide raw materials. Given that most of the infrastructure of Venezuelan oil production needs repair, PAVE gives investors access to the companies providing materials to replace every beam, pipe, and gear.

If you want access to our specific asset allocation then subscribe to be one of our Gold Members. We are celebrating the launch of our portfolio by giving you the first three months entirely free! No strings attached.

https://pioneerfinancialllc.com/products/gold-membership

Thanks for reading! Until next time, good luck out there and Godspeed.

The major events on Wall Street this month.

• 2025 Market Minutes: Five heavy hitting events that shaped the markets in 2025.

• Federal Reserve: Inflation data beat expectations, reinforcing another Federal Reserve rate CUT, along with expectations of future cuts.

• Jobs: The labor market continues to weaken, with key indicators flashing warnin…

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• The 25 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve.

• Reasons for the rate cut despite sticky inflation.

• Is the job market okay?

• Where are we from a historical perspective?

The Federal Reserve held its routine FOMC meeting last week which culminated in an expected 25 basis point CUT. With the recent cut, the Federal Funds rate is now at 3.50-3.75%…

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• What is the Yen Carry Trade?

• What have the consequences been in the past?

• Is the YCT unwinding happening now?

• How are we allocating our assets?

We know what you’re thinking: why is everybody raving about Japan recently? The answer is simple, it’s a little something called the Yen Carry Trade (YCT). And yes, something happening in Japan abso…

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Word on the Street

The major events on Wall Street this month:

- Government shutdown: The longest government shutdown in US history ended on November 12. The 43-day shutdown concluded with a 60/40 Senate vote. However, the ghosts of th…

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The major events on Wall Street this month.

- Government shutdown: As of October 1^st the US government is in a shutdown. Consequential data regarding the economy is now behind schedule, leaving many curious investors in fear of being left in the dark.

- FOMC: The Federal Reserve Board decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the second time. This was in line with expectations.

- Inflation: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 3.0% YoY, slightly below expectations of 3.1%, which caused a modest market rally.

What Happened?

Let’s break down the word on the street.

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